Abbiamo tutti saputo che anche il 2017, così come i tre anni precedenti, è stato un anno di caldo record. Il riscaldamento del pianeta ad opera dell’umanità è dunque ormai in grado di offuscare anche gli effetti naturali, il 2017 infatti avrebbe dovuto essere un anno “Niña”, ovvero meno caldo del solito, a causa di quel complesso fenomeno climatico naturale che si svolge nell’Oceano Pacifico e che attraversa una fase calda detta Niño (l’ultima nel 2016) e una fredda detta appunto Niña (l’ultima nel 2017).
Appare quindi sempre più urgente muoversi per contrastare con efficacia il riscaldamento globale ed è per questo indispensabile operare tagli drastici e rapidi alle emissioni di gas serra, anidride carbonica in primis, in maniera da arrivare a zero emissioni o quasi entro il 2050 (ossia entro poco più di trent’anni).
Una legge semplice che si dovrebbe adottare è quella del dimezzamento ogni decennio, così come proposta da Rockstroem e colleghi (2017) sulla rivista americana Science. Lo scienziato svedese ha immaginato un percorso di avvicinamento all’obiettivo che risulti chiaro a chiunque: siccome i primi progressi da fare sono i più semplici bisogna approfittarne e darci dentro con tagli drastici. I tagli successivi diventano via via più complessi da attuare, secondo la ben nota legge dei rendimenti decrescenti (tipo per cambiare casa il grosso del lavoro si fa in una setttimana ma per attaccare tutti i lampadari passa anche un anno…).
Applicando questo principio del dimezzamento all’Italia chi va al governo in marzo dovrebbe considerare che le emissioni attuali (2015) sono di 443 Mt CO2eq (Ispra 2017). L’arco di attività potenziale del prossimo governo (il quinquennio 2018-2023) dovrebbe quindi prevedere un taglio di 110 Mt, ossia di 22 Mt/anno.
Per ottenere un simile effetto gli strumenti disponibili sono principalmente tre:
– forme di incentivazione per il raddoppio del parco elettrico rinnovabile (sole e vento), che da anni langue sotto i 30mila MWp (17,7 GWp fotovoltaico + 9,5 GWp eolico);
– disincentivazione e drastico calo delle combustioni fossili sia per la produzione di energia che per l’autotrasporto (questi due settori insieme contribuiscono 104+104 Mt di emissioni);
– coibentazione dell’energivoro patrimonio edilizio nazionale (il solo settore residenziale contribuisce 47 Mt, cioè oltre il 10% delle emissioni complessive).
Dal punto di vista operativo quindi il nuovo governo dovrebbe riesaminare radicalmente gli obiettivi della Sen (Strategia energetica nazionale) alla luce di queste necessità di lotta al cambiamento climatico e di decarbonizzazione del paese. Dovrebbero essere altresì studiati provvedimenti attuativi che:
– riaprano il mercato delle installazioni rinnovabili (senza trascurare la questione della compartecipazione dei cittadini agli utili, essenziale per ridurre i contenziosi),
– aprano il mercato alle auto elettriche (creando le postazioni per ricaricarle, quanto più possibile con le rinnovabili…),
– attivino un programma generale (incentivato ma obbligatorio) di ristrutturazione delle abitazioni.
Servono conti dettagliati, e una pianificazione puntuale. Ma in Italia tra ministeri Gse Terna Enea Università e autorità varie di gente che possa impostare questi conti non ne manca mica… Purché non manchi la volontà politica!
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