Ho tra le mani un numero di gennaio della rivista inglese New Scientist, con un ampio articolo sull’enorme calore estivo che nel 2017 ha colpito l’Australia, mettendo a dura prova gli abitanti, benché abituati a sopportare il caldo. Con oltre 40 gradi di massima per settimane persino le vacche al pascolo morivano, mentre ampi incendi distruggevano superfici vastissime di vegetazione spontanea.
Le cose non migliorano nel 2018: lo scorso gennaio (laggiù siamo in estate) la temperatura di Sidney ha raggiunto addirittura i 47 gradi, un record assoluto, ma le proiezioni per il prossimo futuro parlano di ondate termiche estive fino a 50 gradi.
Già oggi questi caldi estremi producono gravi problemi sanitari e secondo alcune analisi il 30% dell’umanità subisce almeno 20 giorni l’anno di temperature potenzialmente letali. Ma la temperatura di per sé non rappresenta l’intero problema, il problema diventa drammatico se non si è in grado di traspirare, ovvero se l’aria diventa troppo umida per consentirlo. Allora si interrompe il meccanismo di autoregolazione termica e in qualche ora può sopravvenire la morte.
Per valutare l’umidità dell’aria i meteorologi oltre a quella consueta misurano anche la cosiddetta “temperatura di bulbo bagnato” (Tbb) ossia la temperatura di un termometro il cui bulbo è avvolto in una garza umida: dalla differenza tra le due temperature si ottiene una valutazione precisa dell’umidità presente in aria.
Questa misura particolare fornisce un valore limite molto netto: se la Tbb supera i 35 gradi per sei ore di fila noi umani non possiamo sopravvivere, persino stando all’ombra, nel senso che salta la possibilità di dissipare calore per mezzo della traspirazione e il corpo va in ipertermia fatale.
Fin’ora questa situazione terribile non si è mai verificata, anche se in questi anni in alcuni posti del mondo ci si è andati vicino. Il tema è particolarmente rilevante per il subcontinente indiano, luogo popolosissimo, molto caldo e spesso molto umido, dove tra Pakistan India e Bangladesh vivono oggi oggi oltre un miliardo e mezzo di persone, la maggior parte delle quali costrette a subire le condizioni esterne in quanto molto povere e viventi in zone rurali.
Il tema dell’adattamento a queste situazioni impone di organizzarci meglio, per esempio migliorando la struttura delle nostre città e abitazioni in maniera da contrastare l’accumulo di calore, ma soprattutto di attivarci per impedire al clima di proseguire su questa pericolosa traiettoria.
Restando in Australia leggiamo di grandi successi nelle fonti rinnovabili e nell’accumulo di energia, con la più grande batteria di accumulatori Tesla attivata solo poche settimane fa a servizio di un impianto eolico, ma bisogna anche considerare che la maggior parte dell’energia elettrica australiana (e non solo) proviene dal carbone, un settore che domina pesantemente anche la politica e riesce a condizionare le elezioni in molti paesi.
Per evitare di arrivare alle temperature fatali di cui sopra tassare il carbonio (è di conseguenza il carbone) è indispensabile. La politica che non agisce in questo senso si rende complice del disastro climatico, e prima o poi l’elettorato viene a saperlo e la punisce.
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